“Big John’s” Thoughts on the Calgary Real Estate Market (October 2016)

September Brings Stabilization To Some Market Segments

The September numbers show some stability in the single family detached market segment, while the apartment market continues to show sluggish sales and high total inventory numbers.

This is the first month in 22 months we have seen stabilization in any market segment.

Is this signaling some much anticipated market stabilization in the overall Calgary and Area real estate market?

Here are some of the important September numbers to consider:

  1. Absorption Rate: (0-2 months of supply is a seller’s market, 2-3.5 months of supply is balance, and 4 or over becomes a buyer’s market)
    • City of Calgary – There is 3.95 months of supply. This number is being pushed upward by the apartment style absorption rate number shown below.
    • Single Family Detached – There is 2.99 months of supply. The good news in this segment of the market is this number is down about 10% from last September.
    • Attached Homes – There is 4.15 months of supply. This number is also down from last year about 7.5%.
    • Apartments – There is 8.26 months of supply, there is definite over supply in this market creating downward pressure on prices and creating some great buying opportunities. This number is up 65% from a year ago and is having the biggest negative impact on the overall Calgary absorption rate numbers being reported.
  2. Sales to New Listings: (Ratio of under 0.6 indicates more of a buyer’s market, 0.6-0.8 indicates a balanced market, and over 0.8 indicates movement towards a seller’s market)
    • City of Calgary – There are 0.48 sales for every new listing.
    • Single Family Detached – There are 0.57 sales for every new listing
    • Attached Homes – There are 0.49 sales for every new listing
    • Apartments – There are 0.31 sales for every new listing
  3. Total Sales – are up about 2% versus a year ago. This is significant as this is the first month we have seen better overall sales during a month this year as compared to the same month the previous year.
  4. New Listing – new listings coming to market are down about 3.5%
  5. Total Listing – are up about 5%

As you can see from the numbers above, the overall market is starting to see some signs of stabilizing.  Many people ask us if the market is “getting better”?  My answer is yes; it is getting better.  But, by better we mean it is not getting worse and it is starting to show some signs of stabilization.

The other day the Federal Government announced some very significant changes to mortgage financing rules that will make it more difficult to obtain financing and will likely mean buyers will qualify to borrow less money.  If you are thinking of making a move, we need to discuss these rule changes with you so you understand how they impact your particular situation.

 

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